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Common Investor Mistakes
Gauging Risk
Buy & Hold Tragedy
Bear Markets
Gauging Risk

Risk


risk (RISK) N. chance of injury, damage, or loss. dangerous chance, hazard. Risk in investing is the chance or probability of losing one's principal or assets.

 


How do we measure risk?
maximum drawdown - the magnitude of decline from an investment's highest value to its lowest value during a given period.

standard deviation - the variability of returns around an investment's average return. The higher the standard deviation, the more likely returns will fluctuate around the average return, which is a risk to an investor because they never know when they may need assets or when investments may deviate from its average return. For example, if Investment X averages a return of +5% but its standard deviation is 7, there is a great amount of risk involved, including a very likely possibility of a negative return value at any given time. On the other hand, if Investment Y averages a return of just +3% but has a standard deviation of 1, chances are that it will not see as big of gains as X, but it will also rarely see returns of less than +2%.

There are other methods but these are what we will use for this discussion.

Assume that Investment A has half the risk of Investment B. Therefore, to compare apples to apples, we assume 50% of B remains in conservative investments (i.e. cash, money market, etc.) while the other 50% is invested. The result is shown below.

 

 

 

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